The NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament, known as March Madness, attracts substantial sports betting activity across the United States, with legal wagers totaling a record $3.28 billion during the 2024 event.[1][2] The multi-week competition, featuring 68 teams and 67 games, ranks among the top gambling events, trailing only the Super Bowl in total handle.[1][3]
Expanded legalization of sports betting since the 2018 U.S. Supreme Court decision in Murphy v. NCAA has driven growth in tournament wagering.[3]
Historical first-round results show competitive matchups for bettors targeting lower seeds. Since 2008, No. 12 seeds have a 28-40 record (.412 winning percentage) against No. 5 seeds across four regional matchups per tournament.[4][5]
No. 11 seeds have recorded 37 wins and 39 losses (.487) against No. 6 seeds in the first round since 2006.[4][5]
Other trends include No. 10 seeds at 10-13 against No. 7 seeds since 2019, affected by COVID-19 disruptions in 2021.[4] From 2016 through 2024, No. 9 seeds went 22-14 against No. 8 seeds over 36 games.[4][5]
"That's where you take shots and that's where, you know, the upsets have occurred," said Johnny Avello, director of race and sportsbook operations at DraftKings, in an interview with Fox News Digital.[6]
Prominent upsets include No. 16 UMBC's 74-54 victory over No. 1 Virginia in 2018, the first 16-over-1 win, and No. 13 Fairleigh Dickinson's 63-58 defeat of No. 2 Purdue in 2023.[7][8]
Bettors often favor chalk in extreme underdog matchups such as 2-vs-15 or 3-vs-14, where higher seeds dominate historically, though spreads can shift based on public action.[4][5]
Sources
- American Gaming Association, "Legal Sports Betting Tops $3.28 Billion During 2024 March Madness", March 28, 2024, https://www.americangaming.org/2024/03/28/legal-sports-betting-tops-3-28-billion-during-2024-march-madness/
- Forbes, "March Madness Sports Betting Handle Up 28% To $2.8 Billion", March 28, 2023 (updated trends for 2024), https://www.forbes.com/sites/willyakowicz/2024/03/27/march-madness-betting-hits-31-billion-up-35-from-2023/
- ESPN, "2024 NCAA tournament records: Upsets most likely to happen", March 17, 2024, https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/39647479/2024-ncaa-tournament-records-upsets-most-likely-happen
- Action Network, "NCAA Tournament Upset History & Records: 11 vs. 6, 12 vs. 5 & More", March 20, 2024, https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaab/ncaa-tournament-upset-history-records-12-seed-11-seed-march-madness-2024
- Fox Sports, "NCAA Tournament first-round upsets: The most common March Madness bracket busters", March 20, 2024, https://www.foxsports.com/stories/college-basketball/ncaa-tournament-first-round-upsets-most-common-march-madness-bracket-busters
- NCAA.com, "NCAA tournament bracket busters: A history of upsets", March 16, 2024, https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2024-03-16/ncaa-tournament-bracket-busters-history-upsets
